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I have been investing for 28 years

I have always said there are 3 guarantees in life: Death, taxes, and cycles.

By Paul Gabrail | Tuesday, July 16, 2024

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I have been investing for 28 years in both stocks and, a few years later, real estate, and a few years after that, individual businesses.

There have been many great lessons learned but that's why I have the philosophy I have today. A philosophy that will continue to change as my life changes in the coming decades.

I just turned 43 two weeks ago and I hope to have 6 more decades of investing in those same 3 areas.

I don't believe there is such a thing as an "equity-only" investor and a "real estate-only" investor.

I think you are an investor and you may choose a certain area of focus. I have always gravitated towards allocating capital in any way I see fit and there are too many options out there to pick just one, in my opinion. The more options I have, the better returns I can get and the less chasing of returns I must do.

That fits MY personality, but it may not fit yours. And that's the beauty of investing.

Being an investor is a way of thinking. "Value investing", as Warren Buffett says, is a redundant term because the proper investor is about buying a future stream of cash flows for as little as you can, hopefully well under its intrinsic value.

This is investing. This is value investing.

What's most important is, you must have that margin of safety because we don't know the future and we are humans who make mistakes.

Growth investing, many would argue, is not part of value investing, but I would argue otherwise. It is a facet of value investing because you can value a growth stock and try to buy it for less than you value it at today after taking your future cash flows and bringing them back to today.

This bull market has been amazing in so many ways. It isn't one to get aggravated over even if you are a traditional value investor.

What is most important is to remember that cycles will always happen.

I have always said there are 3 guarantees in life: Death, taxes, and cycles.

Back when Cathie Wood was the hype of all hypes in early 2021, we were absolutely criticized for our views, and then her $ARKK fund performed as it should have.

The same occurred about cannabis...EV...and my guess is the same will end up with crypto and AI stocks.

Does that mean these are going away? Of course not. The internet didn't go away. Cars didn't go away. Computers didn't go away. Real estate didn't go away.

Bubbles bursting does not remove the asset(s) from existence...the pop merely eliminates most of the junk and enables the best to survive.

During the real estate crash, I was meeting with a real estate investor who said "I would bet $10MM that no one has made money in real estate since the bubble burst."

I immediately put my hand out and said "I will gladly take that bet."

I was considered boring before the bubble burst. And during the bubble bursting, people didn't believe I was buying as much as I was. Then after, I appeared smart. And now I am considered too conservative again.

I don't think there is a real estate bubble now but there has been a significant slowdown in multi-family pricing and it has helped us find better deals. Deals that we weren't even able to touch a mere 18 months ago.

Being a true investor during the current market environment can be quite difficult, emotionally. I have always said, "Being a value investor is about appearing to be wrong at all times." When markets are up, and you are not buying, you are wrong for being cautious. When markets are down, and you are buying as stocks continue to fall, you are wrong for not seeing the obvious end of the world (or whatever doomsday story is hot at the moment).

The worst mistake I have made with money was when I speculated...Ah well. Onward and upward.

What I focus on is my process and refining it over time, BUT NOT based on its short-term results.

I preach process, process, process in all of my videos. When you believe in a process, you are able to stick with it even if your results, in the short run, are not what you had hoped.

This is a game that will last decades, and everyone says they are long-term and patient when stocks are going up. What about when stocks are down significantly or sideways for 10+ years? (This happens far more than people realize)

Thank you for your time.

Paul