What Do Members of Congress Know About These Stocks That We Don’t?
Paul reveals heavy buying of two specific stocks by members of Congress
A Clue: The Semiconductor Race
The two companies in question are at the forefront of semiconductor and chip manufacturing, industries that are crucial to the global economy and national security. Together, these companies boast a staggering $156 billion in free cash flowand have spent $41 billion on research and development in the past 12 months—a tenfold increase compared to the previous decade. This is more than just business; it’s a race for dominance, reminiscent of the Space Race of the 1950s.
Let’s break down these companies, their performance, and the congressional interest behind them.
Stock #1: Apple
Apple, one of the most recognizable names in tech, was purchased by nine members of Congress this year, including:
- Josh Gottheimer
- Marjorie Taylor Greene
- Morgan McGarvey
- Laurel Lee
- Kathy Manning
- Pete Sessions
- Jared Moskowitz
- Tommy Tuberville
- Markwayne Mullin
However, the story doesn’t end with stock purchases. Some of these congressional members have been flagged for violating the STOCK Act, a law meant to prevent insider trading by government officials. For instance:
- Josh Gottheimer was reported in 2022 for failing to disclose a transaction involving Independent Bank Corp on time, raising concerns about potential conflicts of interest due to his committee roles.
- Kathy Manning had dozens of late filings for trades worth up to $1.25 million, which her office attributed to errors corrected promptly.
- Marjorie Taylor Greene disclosed over 80 late trades in companies like PepsiCo and Nike between 2023 and 2024, attributing delays to "technical issues."
- Tommy Tuberville failed to disclose nearly 130 stock and option trades valued between $900,000 and $3.6 million, leading to a filed complaint.
These disclosures spark debate: Should members of Congress even be allowed to trade stocks? While there’s no definitive proof of insider trading, the question remains—why invite suspicion?
Apple’s Growth: Beyond the Hype
Despite the controversies, Apple remains one of the most formidable companies in the world. Here’s why:
- Revenue and Margin Growth:
Since 2014, Apple’s margins have risen from 28.7% to 31.5%. While that 3% increase may sound modest, it’s monumental for a company of Apple’s scale. - The Services Boom:
Apple’s services segment has grown from 9% of revenue in 2018 to a staggering 26% today, driven by high-margin offerings. - Dominance in Devices:
With 2.2 billion active devices worldwide and 650 million weekly visits to its App Store, Apple’s ecosystem is more entrenched than ever. - Rumored Acquisitions:
Apple is rumored to be exploring the acquisition of Intel, which could position the company as a leader in semiconductor manufacturing—a move that aligns with Congress’s keen interest.
Is Apple a Buy Today?
Apple’s current market cap rivals the GDP of major countries, and analysts expect its earnings per share (EPS) to grow from $6.84 to $11.38 in the coming years—a testament to its potential for double-digit growth. But even for a titan like Apple, price matters.
Using the Stock Analyzer Tool, here’s a breakdown of Apple’s valuation:
- Revenue Growth Assumptions: 3%, 5%, and 7%
- Profit Margins: 21%, 24%, and 27%
- PE Ratios: 19, 22, and 26
The analysis yields:
- Low Price: $108
- Middle Price: $154
- High Price: $221
Verdict? At current levels, Apple appears a bit expensive. But with patience and the right entry point, it could be a compelling investment.
Stock #2: NVIDIA
NVIDIA is another favorite among Congress, with 11 members purchasing its shares, including Nancy Pelosi and Marjorie Taylor Greene. The company has ridden the wave of AI, gaming, and cryptocurrency growth, solidifying its position as a leader in cutting-edge technology.
NVIDIA’s Incredible Growth Story
- Revenue Explosion:
NVIDIA’s revenue has surged from $4.7 billion a decade ago to an eye-popping $96 billion in the last 12 months. Analysts expect this to hit $250 billion by 2029. - Dominance in AI:
Controlling 80% of the AI chip market, NVIDIA is the undisputed leader in this space. - Profit Margins:
NVIDIA boasts 55% profit margins and a free cash flow margin of 50%, largely due to its monopolistic hold on AI chips.
Is NVIDIA a Buy Today?
NVIDIA’s meteoric rise raises a critical question: Can it sustain such growth, or are investors chasing an overvalued story?
Here’s what the Stock Analyzer Tool reveals:
- Revenue Growth Assumptions: 10%, 20%, and 30%
- Profit Margins: 30%, 40%, and 50%
- PE Ratios: 20, 25, and 30
The analysis yields:
- Low Price: $36
- Middle Price: $125
- High Price: $385
At current levels, NVIDIA’s stock appears richly valued, even with optimistic growth assumptions.
Final Thoughts: What Do They Know?
Congress’s interest in Apple and NVIDIA raises eyebrows, especially given their inside access to industry insights. But for everyday investors, the key takeaway is clear: Stick to fundamentals.
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